Most investors are told to buy an index fund and hold it forever. The S&P 500 returns roughly 10–11% per year over the long run — not bad. But what if a systematic, rules-based rotation strategy could do significantly better, with a provably better crisis track record?
That's the premise behind the Momentum Capital strategy: rotate automatically between the strongest-performing sectors every week, using price momentum as your only signal.
The backtest results from 2006 to 2025 — covering two major crashes, a pandemic, and a full crypto cycle — speak for themselves.
47.38%
CAGR
Balanced mode
1.160
Sharpe ratio
Risk-adjusted return
$20.6M
$10k → today
19-year compounded
−47.3%
Max drawdown
vs SPY −55.2%
What Is an ETF Rotation Strategy?
An ETF rotation strategy ranks a fixed universe of sector ETFs by price momentum, then allocates capital to the top-performing sectors for a set holding period before re-ranking and rotating.
The core insight is that momentum is persistent: sectors that have outperformed over the past 16–26 weeks tend to continue outperforming over the next 4–12 weeks. Academic research going back decades supports this — the momentum factor is one of the most robust anomalies in financial markets.
Where most momentum strategies stop at equities, ours includes direct Bitcoin and Ethereum as two of 18 competing themes. When crypto is in a strong uptrend (confirmed by EMA filters), it captures outsized momentum returns. When it isn't, the filter blocks entry entirely.
The 18-Sector Universe
The strategy ranks 16 sector and commodity ETFs plus direct BTC and ETH — a total of 18 competing themes:
- —Equity sectors: Technology, Financials, Healthcare, Energy, Consumer Cyclical, Consumer Defensive, Industrials, Materials, Utilities, Real Estate, Communications
- —Commodities: Gold, Silver, Copper, Uranium, and one thematic slot — Clean Energy (ICLN) for Balanced mode, Gold Miners (GDX) for Growth mode
- —Direct Bitcoin (BTC-USD) and direct Ethereum (ETH-USD)
At each rebalance, whichever 1–2 sectors rank highest on momentum and pass the EMA trend filter receive capital. All others are avoided.
Crisis Performance: The Real Test
Raw CAGR numbers are impressive on paper. What matters more is how a strategy behaves when markets collapse — because that's when most investors panic and lock in permanent losses.
The strategy underperformed in 2023 — the year of the AI mega-cap rally — and we show that openly. A momentum strategy concentrated in sectors misses single-stock phenomena like Nvidia's 240% gain. But it also stayed out of 2008's carnage when SPY dropped 40%.
Why This Works Over the Long Run
Three structural reasons explain why systematic sector rotation compounds so effectively:
1. Momentum is a real factor
The academic literature on momentum — from Jegadeesh and Titman (1993) through dozens of subsequent papers — consistently shows that past 3–12 month returns predict near-term future returns. It's not a data artefact. It survives out-of-sample testing across decades and markets.
2. The EMA filter prevents the worst drawdowns
An EMA filter blocks entry during downtrends. This one rule reduced max drawdown from theoretical extremes and kept the strategy entirely out of crypto during the 2018–19 and 2022–23 bear markets.
3. Crypto provides genuine alpha — when filtered
The J-curve shape of the equity curve (flat 2006–2016, explosive 2017+) reflects crypto's entry as a qualifying asset. Without the EMA filter, uncontrolled crypto exposure would have devastated the strategy in bear years. With it, the strategy captures bull runs and avoids the collapses.
How to Follow Along
Momentum Capital runs this scanner daily and publishes the current top-ranked sectors in real time. The live dashboard shows which sectors currently qualify, their momentum scores, and what position sizing the strategy calls for. The performance page shows the full equity curve, regime breakdowns, and both Balanced and Growth mode results.
Past performance doesn't guarantee future results. But 19 years of PIT-clean backtesting across every market regime — crashes, recoveries, rate hikes, crypto booms and busts — is a meaningful evidence base.